The Philippines Red Cross (PRC) has been piloting forecast-based actions (FbA) in the Philippines since 2017, with the intention of mitigating the impact of predictable hazards by acting early based on an impact forecast, before the extreme hazard affects the vulnerable population in the country. One of the considered forecast-based actions proposed by the Red Cross in its typhoon and flood Early Action Protocols (EAP) is the evacuation of livestock, intended to protect the livelihoods of farmers and fishermen. This has been tested by the Philippines Red Cross in a simulation exercise and is feasible in a short lead time (less than 24h). Nevertheless, past experience ahead of typhoon Kammuri (in december 2019) showed that several preparatory activities are required to ensure the effective implementation of the anticipatory action once the EAP trigger is reached: (i) a safe evacuation place must be identified with the concerned local government, (ii) an evacuation protocol must be established with clear roles and responsibilities of the evacuation team, (iii) evacuation information posters may be used in the concerned communities to inform early on the evacuation plan. Eventually, local government can support this anticipatory action by allocating budget from their disaster management fund.

I have more than 15 years of experience in disaster risk management, having worked with various UN agencies or international NGOs, either as a project coordinator or as an independent consultant. I am currently supervising the Forecast based Financing (FbF) project of the German Red Cross in the Philippines, since August 2017, implemented in a total of 22 provinces so far. The FbF project’s main objective is to support the use of anticipatory humanitarian actions, triggered by forecasts when it reaches a pre-approved impact threshold, with the end goal of mitigating the effects of natural disasters prior to their occurrence.